Loan Expiration Predictions

Welcome to the Loan Expiration Predictor! This website allows you to get the approximate risk any loan on Kiva has of expiring. It ranks loans on a scale from 1-11, 1 being there is only a less than 1% chance of expiration, 11 being over 75% chance of expiration. The model is based on data stretching from January 2015 to August 2016. The model is based on 9 key indicators: The amount of the loan, the day of the month the loan is slated to expire, the loan repayment term, the percentage of borrowers who are female, the number of borrowers, the sector of the loan, the country the loan is in, the Field Partner that disburses the loan, and the activity of the loan.
Please note that the predictor does not as of now take into account the loan's current funding trajectory. If there is a kind of loan that would usually expire, but is 99% funded with 20 days left, the calculator will still say it has a high risk of expiration.
The calculator is meant to be used as a tool to initially diagnose loans that might expire. It is not very useful when a loan is about to fund, or about to expire.
The predictor may not be very good with loans from Field Partners or countries that have been added to Kiva after August 2016. The predictor does not support Kiva US.
You can see more about the different categories here.

Link to loan: