Welcome to the Loan Expiration Predictor! This website allows you to
get the approximate risk any loan on Kiva has of expiring. It ranks
loans on a scale from 1-11, 1 being there is only a less
than 1% chance of expiration, 11 being over 75% chance of
The model is
based on data stretching from January 2015 to August 2016.
The model is based on 9 key indicators: The amount of the
loan, the day of the month the loan is slated to expire, the
loan repayment term, the percentage of borrowers who are
female, the number of borrowers, the sector of the loan, the
country the loan is in, the Field Partner that disburses the
loan, and the activity of the loan.
Please note that the predictor does not as of now take into account the loan's current funding trajectory. If there is a kind of loan that would usually expire, but is 99% funded with 20 days left, the calculator will still say it has a high risk of expiration.
The calculator is meant to be used as a tool to initially diagnose loans that might expire. It is not very useful when a loan is about to fund, or about to expire.
The predictor may not be very good with loans from Field Partners or countries that have been added to Kiva after August 2016. The predictor does not support Kiva US.
You can see more about the different categories here.